Bachelor for Nerds

Week 3

I was flabbergasted by the news that Dale and Clare had separated. Who knew that getting engaged after two weeks of meeting each other wouldn’t work out in the long run… or the short run?

Background Analysis

The table below shows the breakdown for each contestant heading into Week 3. The contestants in red were eliminated during the episode.

The model went 3 for 6 this week, a fine start to the season if I say so myself. Marylynn, Sydney and Illeana were expected to be eliminated with Alana close in consideration. Kristin was the only contestant who I really didn’t think would be eliminated (not counting Sarah due to the nature of her elimination).

The figure below shows the state representation for the remaining contestants following Week 3.

Tennessee and Virginia lost their representation after Sydney and Kristin were eliminated. California still has three contestants remaining, and Illinois, New York and Oregon each have two; every other state/country has one contestant remaining.

The median age is now 24.5 which is honestly wild. To put it another way, half of the remaining contestants are 24 or younger, and the other half are 25 or older. Poor Magi is getting alone as the only one above 30 years old remaining.

Show Analysis

Before the poetry readings, one thing really stood out to me. Matt stopped by Rachael’s table for some casual conversation about what she was going to write, and she was very relaxed. Rachael wasn’t trying to get his attention or do anything too showy; she instead treated him like a normal person and not a celebrity. Her composure and maturity around Matt will keep her on the show longer than the other contestants, and it’s no surprise that she got the rose at the end of the group date.

I like how we are made to believe that contestants just know exactly where Matt is at all times. Sarah took the shortest path to get to Matt and interrupt the group date, which went as well as we’d expect. Her inability to be around the other girls and face the social consequences of her actions is only adding to her anxiety. If she can’t talk about her problems with the other contestants, then she is going to continue having a miserable time.

Sarah’s impulsiveness and lack of foresight ultimately resulted in her downfall, but she should not have been on The Bachelor in the first place. She is already going through a lot emotionally with her family situation, so her going on a show to find love and compete with other contestants who are also looking for love was not going to be fruitful.

Serena P. seemed really fun during her 1-on-1 with Matt, but she also seemed a bit childish. I don’t know if she was just nervous, but this is something that could keep her from making it far. There weren’t any red flags or bad moments from their date, so Serena P. ended up with a rose.

Katie is honestly such a homie. It was really cool of her to be the one to sit down and talk to Sarah, especially considering she was the one Sarah interrupted on the group date. Katie may be a fun and goofy person, but she also has a great personality and has thus earned a lot of my respect.

Looking Ahead

The table below shows the breakdown for each contestant following Week 3.

Of those remaining, Victoria still has the most mentions on Twitter, but there’s some other contestants who are getting some action. This is promising as we can see that contestants not named Victoria are generating conversation about The Bachelor on social media.

Serena P. did not get a huge boost in her BSR, even after having a 1-on-1 with Matt. Only three people tweeted about her, which doesn’t bode well for someone who had a significant amount of time with Matt and on camera. This justifies her precarious position in the BSR rankings.

The figure below is a visualization of the BSR standings following Week 3.

Notice that no contestants are outside two standard deviations from the zero-BSR mean. Translated into non-nerd terms, there are no contestants who are outliers in neither a good nor a bad way. This visualization does a good job of stratifying the remaining contestants; I think most of us fans can agree that Abigail, Bri and Rachael are in a safe group while Kaili, Magi, Victoria and Lauren are collectively in dangerous territory.

It looks like there will be some new contestants joining The Bachelor next week, and I’m excited to see how this will affect the BSR.