Bachelor for Nerds
Week 4
Nobody was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame. A Reddit community is causing hedge funds to lose billions in assets. The Bachelor ended with more contestants than the previous episode. This week cannot be real.
Background Analysis
The table below shows the breakdown for each contestant heading into Week 4. The contestants in red were eliminated during the episode.
The model went 1 for 2 this week to get to a total of 4 for 8 on the season. While I did expect Kaili to be sent home, Khaylah’s elimination was a huge shock to me. I’m sure many fans also thought she was among the stronger group of contestants, but unfortunately Matt didn’t think so.
The figure below shows the state representation for the remaining contestants following Week 4.
North Carolina lost its sole representative in Khaylah, but Minnesota entered the show with Michelle. There are also now three countries/territories outside the continental United States represented: Canada, Ethiopia, and Puerto Rico. Following the eliminations and additions in Week 4, California and New York each have three contestants, Illinois and Oregon have two, and the rest have one.
Even after all of the changes to the contestant pool, the median age stays at 24.5.
Show Analysis
They really speedran the group date at the beginning. It was quite uneventful because there was no drama… or event. The only purpose of the group date was to showcase Matt’s growing relationships with MJ, Mari, Abigail, and Chelsea. Chelsea seems to have a really good personality and her relationship with Matt is only getting stronger, and it’s no surprise she received her first rose.
Did Mari win anything from the squirrel obstacle course race thing? It’s not the biggest takeaway from the group date, but I do think she got gypped.
In general, Anna needs to chill out and blink more. Brittany didn’t do anything to Anna to make her so aggressive and hateful, so this has a poor effect on her character. We’ve seen Anna’s descent into madness over the season, and I think Matt is starting to notice her behavior and craziness. I’m happy that Bri got the rose over Anna and Brittany, but I really don’t like the palpable division between the new contestants and the old contestants.
Of the new contestants, Michelle has by far the best personality. The 1-on-1 felt very real and comfortable between her and Matt based on the way they goofed and conversed with each other. I don’t anticipate this rose being her last.
It was only a matter of time before one of the old contestants became a facilitator of peace, and I’m so glad it was Katie. She’s become one of my favorite contestants over the past couple weeks due to her tremendous character. On the same topic, Rachael is another contestant who I think is treating the situation very well. She told Matt that the addition of five contestants should not affect their current feelings for each other and whether or not she makes it to the end. This statement does a great job of simplifying everything going on while highlighting Rachael’s maturity.
Looking Ahead
The table below shows the breakdown for each contestant following Week 4.
Katie is the second contestant to break the triple-digit threshold for Twitter mentions. Michelle and Brittany put up good numbers as new contestants while Catalina and Ryan barely got any action. The Serenas were the least popular with zero tweets.
Both her PERSONALITY and POPULARITY factors are key reasons why Katie’s BSR has skyrocketed. She has shown the most improvement throughout the season, and I hope that her pursuit to end drama doesn’t get herself eliminated.
The figure below is a visualization of the BSR standings following Week 4.
Much like last week, no contestants are outside two standard deviations from the zero-BSR mean. I will admit that the figure does seem a bit off. Personally, I think Chelsea and Michelle may be undervalued and Katie may be overvalued, but I am hesitant to influence the data in order to get what I think should be right. I guess we’ll see if my math or my gut performs better next week.